Nigeria Elections: February 2015

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has confirmed that 14th February 2015 shall be voting day for electing the President and members to the National Assembly, which comprises of the Senate and House of Representatives.

Election History

Nigeria is the most populous country in the African continent and ranks 9th in the world, in terms of population. Located on the western side of the continent, the oil rich state shares its borders with Niger in the north, Republic of Benin on the west and Chad & Cameroon on the eastern side. The country also enjoys a large coastline on the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria has large Christian and Muslim population, along with a mix of other ethnic groups.

In 1999, Nigeria embraced democracy after a turbulent past and has continued to be democratically governed, ever since. The political scenario has been dominated by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which has remained unchallenged through the last three general elections and has seen 25 years of being in power.

PDP’s vote share in 1999 elections was 62.78%, 2003 – 61.94%, 2007 – 69.82%, and 2011 – 58.89%. Of the 25 political parties registered with the INEC, few have been consistently politically visible through this period, winning only regional gubernatorial elections or securing some legislative or federal seats, based on their local strengths.

However, the 2015 elections are being closely watched, as the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is an alliance of three parties ACN, CPC and ANPP coming together with a faction of APGA, to present a serious challenge to PDP.

PDP’s rule has been under severe political pressure, with a section breaking away to form a new PDP. Five of the seven governors have defected to the new alliance, APC. Shortly thereafter, 37 PDP members in the House of Representatives, defected to APC, thereby giving APC a slim majority in the lower house.

Similarly, in the Senate, 22 members of the PDP have indicated willingness to join APC and 11 others having formally applied for defection, the matter has been with the courts.

APC itself is witnessing power tussles between the original members and those that have recently defected from the PDP. Questions have been raised on whether the alliance will be able to bring in fresh perspective on economic, social and international relation issues.

Given Nigeria’s history of violence and allegations of poll rigging, INEC has committed itself to organizing the most free and fair election till date and will certainly be hard pressed to keep poll malpractices like large amounts of cash exchanging hands, poll violence and poll rigging. INEC and its Chairman Attahiru Jega, has of late come under much criticism, on its handling of the recent governorship elections that was held in Anambra state.

The 2015 elections has long term political ramifications and INEC’s conduct of these elections will be under sharp scrutiny in Nigeria and by the international community. Nigeria’s economic and political stability is crucial for the African continent’s overall stability and development.

Election system

Nigeria, follows a federal structure headed by a President and has a bi-cameral National Assembly, comprising of the Senate with 109 seats, which is the upper house and the House of Representatives with 360 seats, which is the lower house.

The 36 states are divided into 3 senatorial seats each, with all senators being elected for a four year term. The Federal Capital Territory is represented by one senator.

The House of Representatives has members elected from single seat constituencies, for a four year term.

The Election Process

Nigeria follows a multi-party system and all registered voters, holding a registration card, can exercise their franchise through an Open Secret Ballot System.

The Political parties

There are 25 political parties registered with INEC, however, the 2015 elections is likely to witness a close contest between the ruling PDP and the newly formed alliance of opposition parties, the APC.

Presidential Candidates

The incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan of PDP, is standing for re-election and he is being challenged by Mr Muhammadu Buhari of APC.

By standing for re-election, President Jonathan has stirred a controversy, as there was a tradition of rotation for the Presidential post between the North and South, as also alternate rotation between a Christian and Muslim candidate.

Fighting anti-incumbency, PDP has tried to use the law by appealing to INEC against Mr Buhari’s candidature, citing the absence of his academic qualifications, even though the same has been established in earlier elections.

The run-up to 2015 polls has been overshadowed by Boko Haram’s violent insurgency push across Nigeria and the coming month will reveal which way the people decide on their political future.